Sunday Sentiments
-
By Karan Thapar
At times the best way to understand the future is to raise questions about it. You may not have the answers but you will, at least, identify the concerns. That should prepare you for what to expect as the future unfolds.
As we await Donald Trump’s inauguration tomorrow as the 47th President of the United States – his second non-consecutive stab at the job – let me pose some questions that could indicate what lies ahead.
Two men who’ve worked closely with Trump, John Kelly, his former Chief of Staff, and Anthony Scaramucci, his former Director of Communications, have called him a fascist. Will that prove to be accurate?
Many of his appointments are controversial. Will Pete Hegseth as Defence Secretary, Robert Kennedy as Health Secretary, Kash Patel as FBI Director and Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, get confirmed or rejected?
However, two appointments have been applauded. Marco Rubio, as Secretary of State, and Michael Waltz, as National Security Advisor. But will they really determine Trump’s foreign policy?
Perhaps more importantly, how influential is Elon Musk? He certainly seems very close to Trump and he’s paid $270 million to help elect him. Does that make him some sort of eminence grise?
Elon Musk has allegedly held talks to remove Keir Starmer from office as Britain’s Prime Minister. He’s called him “utterly despicable”. He’s also waded into the German elections and called Chancellor Scholz “a fool”. Has this happened with Trump’s blessings?
Trump has talked of imposing a 20% tariff on all imports and far higher tariffs on Chinese exports. He’s also threatened Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs. So could we end up perilously close to a trade war?
In this connection, what sort of relationship is Trump likely to pursue with China and Xi Jinping? And what will be the implications for India?
Let’s now come to two big foreign policy challenges. Trump’s boasted he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in a day. Is that just rhetoric or real intention? Either way is it bad news for Zelensky?
Again, in this connection, what future does NATO face? Will Trump simply demand its members pay more for their defence or could he threaten the organization’s unity and existence?
The other international challenge is Israel-Gaza. Trump supports Israel and Netanyahu, in particular. During his first presidency he moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. Now what will he embolden Netanyahu to do? Attacks on Iran?
Whilst we’re talking about the Middle East, what about Syria, where we saw a political earthquake last month when Bashar al-Assad was deposed. The Biden Administration made an attempt to reach out to Damascus. Will Trump reverse that policy?
There’s a third international issue but I’m not sure how serious Trump is. He says he wants to buy Greenland. He’s even talked of taking back the Panama Canal and annexing Canada. Does he really mean all of this or is he just ventilating his frustration?
Finally, let’s focus on India. Modi and Trump established a close personal relationship during Trump 1.0. But Trump can be unpredictable. Will that friendship blossom? Or wither if he pursues the Pannun and Adani cases?
Of greater concern is the fact he’s often accused India of high tariffs. The Harley-Davidson is the great example he cites. Now, will Indian tariffs once again be in his sights?
The other sticking point is H-1B visas. During his first presidency Trump called them “very bad” and “unfair”. This time Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Sriram Krishnan have spoken in strong support of these visas. Musk has even said he could “go to war” over the issue. So when it comes to H-1B visas will Trump 2.0 be very different to Trump 1.0?
These questions are not comprehensive but indicative of a range of subjects that are likely to be troubling. What they suggest is just how de-stabilizing the second Trump presidency could be. Brace yourself for a rough and rocky ride!