By Karan Thapar

The point I wish to make today is simple and straight forward. The chances of the 28 party INDIA alliance realizing its dream of ‘defeating’ Narendra Modi and the BJP in the forthcoming elections hinges on the answer to a single question. What is their aim – to ensure the BJP falls short of 272 and cannot form a government without allies or to maximize the number of seats each party wins?

These are two different goals and, presently, cannot be realized together. They require different approaches and strategies. Indeed, if the aim is to maximise the number of seats you can almost guarantee the BJP will return with a sizeable majority.

To keep the BJP below 272 each party needs to accept its limitations. That’s a lot harder than it prime facie seems. It requires sacrificing its interests for the greater benefit of the alliance. Only then can INDIA put up a one-to-one fight in at least 400 seats and hope the 60% who vote for the opposition is not split by multiple candidates.

Let me illustrate with reference to Congress. In states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal it must accept recent history confirms its prospects are limited and this isn’t the moment to try and improve them.

In 2014 Congress won a solitary Lok Sabha seat in UP and in 2022, at the Vidhan Sabha level, just 2. Its vote share was 6.4% and 2.4% respectively. The story in Bengal is worse. In 2019 it won 2 Lok Sabha seats and in 2021 it didn’t win a single Vidhan Sabha seat. Its vote share was 5.7% and 3.1% respectively.

The message is clear. The more seats Congress contests the more the BJP could win. This is precisely what happened in Bihar. In the 2020 Vidhan Sabha election, Congress contested 70 but won 19. This was a repeat of its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. It contested 9 but won 1.

Of course, there are states where other members of the INDIA block have to make sacrifices in Congress’s favour. They include Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. Here parties like Samajwadi or Aam Aadmi must check their ambitions. This is not a time to spread their wings. Congress is better placed to defeat the BJP.

There are, of course, some states that will be problematic. Punjab and Delhi are two. In Punjab, at the Lok Sabha level, Congress won 8 and Aam Aadmi 1. The situation reversed very substantially in the Vidhan Sabha elections. It was 92-18 in favour of AAP. In Delhi, neither party has a Lok Sabha seat and, perhaps, Congress came second in more seats than AAP. But the Vidhan Sabha elections established AAP’s massive dominance. In neither state will it be easy to split the seats. But if they do it greedily the BJP will be the winner.

Can you now see why my point is both simple and straight forward but also glaringly obvious? Can you also accept it can only be self-defeating for the INDIA alliance to dispute this logic? This is the bare minimum the opposition must do to restrict the BJP below 272. There is, of course, a lot more.

First, what’s their message? Personal criticism of the Prime Minister doesn’t work. A concentrated focus on Adani and crony capitalism, weakness in response to China or ill-treatment of minorities doesn’t win votes. But issues that affect the daily lives of ordinary people might i.e. inflation, education, health, jobs and poverty.

I would go further. The INDIA alliance must ensure the question ‘Modi versus who?’ doesn’t end with the default answer Rahul Gandhi. He must make clear he’s not the presumptive prime ministerial candidate and, if necessary, repeat it till it’s accepted beyond doubt.

Let me end with a message for Congress. Modi and the BJP cannot be defeated easily. Bringing them below 272 should be the target for 2024. Congress should work for a majority of its own only in 2029.